Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
