Under a golden sunset in Memphis in May, Sharon Wilson directed a infrared camera at a large AI hub to expose a planetary threat hidden from plain view. Operating without pollution controls, the fossil fuel-powered engines powering one of the world’s biggest AI supercomputers were pumping invisible fumes into the Tennessee sky.
“It was jaw-dropping,” commented the observer, who calculates the facility was emitting more methane than a large power plant. “An absolutely staggering level of contamination.”
Around the same time, the resulting chatbot was running riot on news feeds, echoing false narratives and making inaccurate statements. Commentators have highlighted AI-created pictures of offensive characters as an case of what methane was being consumed to produce. “What is the actual benefit here?”
Others echo this sentiment in voicing this concern. Researchers are monitoring the AI boom with apprehension as it contaminates the natural world with greenhouse gases and the digital world with dangers ranging from medical myths to AI-generated abusive content.
A number of analysts fear datacentres may derail the transition to a low-carbon future, adding an major challenge to the difficult goal of keeping the planet from warming beyond critical thresholds. Some are optimistic about the energy costs, arguing they are relatively small not just to other sectors, but also to the technology’s capacity to transform our world.
The Soaring Energy Demand
As Hannah Daly ran models for an leading energy organization, she spent not much focus worrying about the emissions impact of computers. Cars, cows and home heating were among the complex challenges using up the carbon budget.
But in Ireland, the energy demand from computing has reached levels that are hard to overlook. Datacentres consume one-fifth of the country’s electricity and are expected to devour nearly one-third within a few years. The quick proliferation of these computing facilities has exceeded the electricity grid's capacity, leading to effective bans on new grid connections.
“The path of enormous, exponential growth is what is so alarming,” said Daly. “It is uncertain whether this is a real outlier or a precursor of what’s to come. But it’s definitely a warning story.”
Internationally, datacentres consume just 1% of the world’s electricity but may soon demand much more. Their portion of electricity demand in major economies is projected to more than double by 2035. Some demand is being met through long-term agreements to buy green electricity, while some tech firms have made agreements to use nuclear energy.
But for the coming years, non-renewable sources are set to be the primary source. In some regions, datacentres are located in areas reliant on carbon-intensive power generation. In others, political support has framed them as justification for continuing with dirty energy. “This idea that the lower cost of renewables alone will drive decarbonisation – that is insufficient,” said Daly. “If there’s a huge source of energy demand that wants to grow, it will land on these stranded fossil fuel assets.”
Weighing the Environmental Footprint of a Interaction
Does utilizing chatbots to plan holidays endanger the planet? Tech companies have hesitated to provide detailed data on their AI energy footprints, but popular guesstimates hover around a small amount of energy for a simple text query, rising considerably for more complex tasks. One CEO recently stated a typical AI query uses as little energy as running a lightbulb for a couple of minutes.
These figures are negligible compared to activities such as air travel, eating meat, or driving a car. However, concerned voices worry about the enormous size of the technology – with hundreds of millions of weekly users – and the eagerness with which companies have shoved it into every aspect of digital life. The rise of AI agents is expected to add to the constant energy drain.
“The issue that troubles me is that we’re deploying AI in such a way that we don’t have a good idea of the energy use,” said a climate lead at an AI company. “The current approach is on the hypothesis that it’s not a problem – or that if it is a problem it will somehow be solved – instead of proactively addressing it.”
The Potential for Climate Good
What if AI could offset its energy debts by reducing emissions in other parts of the economy? That is the thesis put forward in several reports, which argued existing AI applications could cut emissions by far more than datacentres produced. Researchers have modelled scenarios in which AI would help to integrate solar and wind, identify sustainable food sources, improve energy storage tech and encourage consumers toward climate-friendly choices.
“AI can speed up the deployment of those clean technologies by basically moving them faster along the curve of progress and implementation,” said a policy fellow involved in the research.
The potential climate benefits carry significant caveats – greater efficiency can lead to more use, and secondary impacts may undercut the gains. But instances already exist. Some companies report AI has helped optimize thermal management in datacentres by a significant percentage. Energy firms say AI has optimised wind turbine maintenance and performance, increasing operational efficiency. Solar farm operators have reduced downtime by using AI to identify problems.
Because other sectors are so carbon-intensive, researchers say, AI would only need to cut their emissions by a tiny percentage to cover the carbon cost of its computing. “Regarding electricity we are already seeing the results,” said one researcher. “However other sectors are not there yet.”
The Other Side: Enabling Fossil Fuels
Clean tech advocates are not the only ones to have noticed AI’s powerful capabilities. The fossil fuel industry is also a major adopter. Some former tech employees have expressed concern over their companies' work for oil and gas clients, arguing it enables more emissions than the tech sector produces itself. Partnerships have been announced with major oil companies, with the potential to expand production and streamline exploration.
Industry estimates suggest AI could boost technically recoverable oil and gas reserves and cut project costs. Industry leaders have stated that AI is embedded “in everything” and has increased productivity, leading to more drilling activity. The oil and gas industry also argues AI can cut its carbon intensity, for instance by analysing data to spot methane leaks. But critics say there is a difference between technological capabilities and corporate actions.
“This is being utilized as an justification to avoid regulation,” said one campaigner. “Monitoring methane from space is not stopping methane.”
Perhaps even more worrying than the expansion of fossil fuel supply is the effect on consumption. Generative AI has been shown to create extremely persuasive advertisements, and the ease of production slashes the cost of driving demand. The marketing industry is preparing for AI agents that could automate shopping on a customer’s behalf.
“The narrative is really focused on this false comparison between the energy used to run the technology and the positive use cases,” said a campaigner. “But it is dangerous to ignore the negative use cases.”
Calls for Caution and Rules
Certain groups are calling to hit pause, at least until better rules are in place. International bodies and coalitions of environmental groups have demanded a halt on new datacentre development, citing damaging environmental impacts. Some national regulators have imposed conditions, requiring that a large majority of a datacentre’s power must eventually come from new renewable projects.
Different voices have called to push the sector to do good. A few countries have started to mention AI in climate legislation, obliging governments to promote digitalisation that aids decarbonisation. There have also been suggestions to create a fund to generate resources needed for climate action.
Some campaigners are pushing for upcoming regulations to classify certain high-emission applications of AI as concerning. They also want investors to consider indirect climate impacts when evaluating companies.
In response to concerns, some AI companies have stated they give considerable thought to the optimal application of computing power, support sustainability goals, and believe AI will be instrumental in tackling climate change. Other tech firms argue the energy transition is complex and requires a principled manner, with technology playing an important role in helping industries decarbonize.
One researcher concluded that, rather than panic, people should pressure companies to make tools that are built for sustainability.
“Perhaps I am too hopeful, but I still believe that AI can be a force for good in terms of fighting the climate crisis – inventing the next generation of batteries, monitoring deforestation, anticipating hurricanes,” she said. “Countless good things for which we can be using it – and instead we’re creating digital spaces filled with low-value content while datacentres are getting powered by polluting backup systems.”
