Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
